Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 23.593648 25.763131 28.128917 30.915881 34.129397 37.743208 42.149803
2025-08-03 19.846418 22.700475 26.040355 30.295542 35.659774 42.322120 51.431207
2025-08-10 17.361431 20.544408 24.471088 29.789725 37.003475 46.768793 61.616668
2025-08-17 15.727448 19.121662 23.491946 29.723434 38.733148 51.932558 74.197594
2025-08-24 14.375785 17.852885 22.484568 29.371795 39.882620 56.394358 87.095124
2025-08-31 13.299714 16.809554 21.619953 29.035385 40.906531 60.791542 101.439678
2025-09-07 12.418103 15.932419 20.868566 28.722686 41.850381 65.200682 117.619033
2025-09-14 11.697512 15.208552 20.249361 28.504441 42.868228 69.939065 136.791886
2025-09-21 11.016453 14.481373 19.547707 28.049591 43.366635 73.765273 155.899491
2025-09-28 10.802871 14.414134 19.828196 29.227809 47.024313 85.151592 203.924041
2025-10-05 10.319172 13.903971 19.367836 29.072918 48.085997 91.105638 240.590925
2025-10-12 9.900805 13.462961 18.977468 28.988360 49.263448 97.724464 287.044793
2025-10-19 9.598442 13.187711 18.843536 29.372672 51.549481 108.223701 366.632629
2025-10-26 9.229092 12.784732 18.467276 29.263472 52.749399 116.298610 450.879588
2025-11-02 8.859838 12.360060 18.022700 28.973848 53.490703 123.396731 548.111992
2025-11-09 8.572273 12.049709 17.749986 28.989441 54.965840 133.611290 705.585157
2025-11-16 8.256023 11.675173 17.339105 28.682735 55.593677 141.310879 878.929122
2025-11-23 7.962984 11.323689 16.945474 28.370969 56.158592 149.180289 1109.558374
2025-11-30 7.693300 10.997681 16.576495 28.074060 56.716522 157.453227 1429.910133
2025-12-07 7.454811 10.712475 16.263331 27.865201 57.484607 167.202845 1929.003987
2025-12-14 7.200004 10.388506 15.860851 27.426118 57.535650 173.916772 2512.487263
2025-12-21 7.171590 10.446364 16.162785 28.565986 62.422693 208.120496 6300.251833
2025-12-28 6.978569 10.212389 15.904327 28.416384 63.397260 222.738570 11780.796441